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QUALCOMM INC/DE (QCOM)·Q4 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 FY25 delivered solid non‑GAAP results above guidance and consensus: revenue $11.27B and non‑GAAP EPS $3.00, driven by premium Android handsets, record automotive revenue >$1B, and resilient IoT; GAAP EPS was a loss due to a non‑cash $5.7B tax charge from new U.S. legislation . Versus S&P Global consensus, QCOM beat by ~$0.51B on revenue and ~$0.13 on EPS (26/28 ests). [GetEstimates Q4 2025]
  • Segment performance was strong: QCT revenue +13% y/y to $9.82B (EBT margin 29%), QTL revenue $1.41B (EBT margin 72%); QCT streams saw Handsets +14% y/y to $6.96B, Automotive +17% to $1.05B, IoT +7% to $1.81B .
  • FY25 non‑GAAP revenue rose 13% to $44.14B and non‑GAAP EPS 18% to $12.03; management highlighted 18% growth in QCT non‑Apple revenue and combined Automotive+IoT up 27% for the year .
  • Outlook: Q1 FY26 guidance calls for record revenue $11.8B–$12.6B and non‑GAAP EPS $3.30–$3.50; QCT $10.3B–$10.9B (30–32% EBT margin), QTL $1.4B–$1.6B (74–78% EBT margin) .
  • Strategic catalysts: accelerating edge AI (premium Android momentum, AI PCs), record auto revenues and first L2+ RidePilot deployment with BMW, and a pulled‑forward AI data center revenue timeline to FY27 (Humane 200MW deployment targeted 2026) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Premium Android outperformance: QCT Handsets +14% y/y in Q4 on Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 5 strength; “all three QCT revenue streams exceeded our expectations” (CEO) .
    • Automotive momentum: record quarterly revenue >$1B in Q4 (+17% y/y), launch of Snapdragon RidePilot with BMW iX3; management expects continued growth as more vehicles launch .
    • Non‑Apple growth and diversification: FY25 non‑GAAP revenue +13% to $44.14B; QCT non‑Apple +18% y/y, combined Auto+IoT +27% y/y; management reiterated progress toward 2029 targets .
  • What Went Wrong

    • GAAP loss from tax legislation: OBBB drove a non‑cash $5.7B charge (valuation allowance on U.S. deferred tax assets), pushing Q4 GAAP EPS to ($2.89); excluded from non‑GAAP .
    • QTL softness: QTL revenue fell 7% y/y in Q4 to $1.41B; EBT margin declined 2 pts y/y to 72% .
    • Elevated OpEx for new vectors: Q&A pointed to increased investment for data center initiatives impacting year‑over‑year margin mix in QCT despite strong revenue growth .

Financial Results

Overall results vs prior year/quarter (non‑GAAP unless noted; columns oldest→newest)

MetricQ4 2024Q3 2025Q4 2025
Revenue ($B)$10.244 $10.4 $11.270
EPS (non‑GAAP)$2.69 $2.77 $3.00
GAAP EPS$2.59 N/A($2.89) (OBBB non‑cash charge)
EBT margin (non‑GAAP, company)34% N/A34%

Segment breakdown

SegmentMetricQ4 2024Q3 2025Q4 2025
QCTRevenue ($B)$8.678 $9.0 $9.821
EBT ($B)$2.465 $2.7 $2.896
EBT margin28% 30% 29%
QTLRevenue ($B)$1.521 $1.3 $1.409
EBT ($B)$1.120 N/A$1.015
EBT margin74% 71% 72%

QCT revenue streams (KPI detail)

QCT StreamQ4 2024 ($B)Q3 2025 ($B)Q4 2025 ($B)
Handsets$6.096 $6.3 $6.961
Automotive$0.899 $0.984 $1.053
IoT$1.683 $1.7 $1.807
Total QCT$8.678 $9.0 $9.821

Consensus vs actual (S&P Global)

MetricQ4 2025 ConsensusQ4 2025 Actual
Revenue ($B)$10.757*$11.270
EPS (non‑GAAP)$2.87*$3.00
# of ests (Rev / EPS)28 / 26*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Balance sheet and cash flow highlights (FY end)

  • Cash & equivalents $5.52B; marketable securities $4.64B; inventories $6.53B; total assets $50.14B .
  • Long‑term debt $14.81B; equity $21.21B .
  • FY25 operating cash flow $14.01B; FY25 capex $1.19B .
  • Return of capital: Q4 repurchase $2.44B and dividend $0.89/sh ($0.96B) = $3.40B; FY25 total $12.60B . Quarterly dividend declared: $0.89 payable Dec 18, 2025 .

Non‑GAAP reconciliation and adjustments

  • Q4 non‑GAAP net income $3.257B and EPS $3.00; major exclusions include share‑based comp ($0.44/share) and “other items” ($5.45/share), notably the $5.7B tax charge tied to OBBB .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Revenue ($B)Q1 FY26N/A$11.8–$12.6 New
QCT Revenue ($B)Q1 FY26N/A$10.3–$10.9 New
QTL Revenue ($B)Q1 FY26N/A$1.4–$1.6 New
GAAP diluted EPSQ1 FY26N/A$2.55–$2.75 New
Non‑GAAP diluted EPSQ1 FY26N/A$3.30–$3.50 New
QCT EBT marginQ1 FY26N/A30%–32% New
QTL EBT marginQ1 FY26N/A74%–78% New
Non‑GAAP OpEx ($B)Q1 FY26N/A~2.45 New
Effective tax rate (non‑GAAP)ForwardN/A13%–14% go‑forward; lower cash taxes expected New
DividendNext paymentPrior $0.89$0.89, payable Dec 18, 2025 Maintained

Note: No prior formal Q1 FY26 guidance was issued; “Previous Guidance” shown as N/A.

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q‑2 and Q‑1)Current Period (Q4 FY25)Trend
AI data center strategyBuilding AI inference accelerators and Orion CPU solutions; advanced talks with a hyperscaler; revenue contribution previously guided to FY28 . Q2 also highlighted AlphaWave acquisition to accelerate roadmap .Pulled forward timeline: now “material” revenue in FY27; first customer Humane with 200MW deployment targeted 2026; KPIs/roadmap to be detailed 1H26 .Accelerating; visibility improving
Premium Android handsetsQ2/Q3: strong mix shift to premium, Android growth +7–10% y/y; Snapdragon 8 Elite traction; subsidies supporting China premium mix .Q4: Handsets +14% y/y to $6.96B; multiple China OEM launches; sequential low‑teens handset growth guided for Q1 .Strengthening
Samsung/Apple share dynamicsBaseline Samsung share at ~75%; Apple share lower in fall 2025 launches; normal seasonal patterns .Reiterated Samsung baseline 75% (S25 at 100%; S26 assumes 75%); Apple in 3 of 4 models; growth primarily Android .Stable expectations
Automotive (Digital Chassis/ADAS)Q3 record ~$984M; BMW Neue Klasse ADAS launch pending; expanding programs .Q4 record >$1B; RidePilot (L2+) launched with BMW iX3; guide flat to slightly up in Q1; pipeline strengthening .Up and to the right
IoT and XR/smart glassesQ2/Q3: strong industrial/networking; Meta smart glasses demand; 19–30 designs across partners .Q4 IoT +7% y/y; strong AI smart glasses demand; Arduino acquisition to scale edge AI developer base (~30M users) .Sustained growth; ecosystem buildout
Tariffs/macro/supply chainQ2: tariff impact minimal; diversified supply chain; monitoring macro .Q4: Focus shifted to tax law (OBBB) and its non‑cash GAAP impact; no new macro headwinds highlighted .Macro steady; tax regime shift
Licensing/regulatoryHuawei license negotiations ongoing; no updates (Q2) .No substantive update; discussions continue (Q4 Q&A) .Unchanged

Management Commentary

  • “Our business remains strong as demonstrated by record QCT revenues in fiscal 2025… We delivered 18% year‑over‑year growth in total QCT non‑Apple revenues, with combined fiscal year Automotive and IoT revenue growth of 27%.” — Cristiano Amon, CEO (press release) .
  • “In Fiscal Q4, we delivered another strong quarter with revenues of $11.3 billion and non‑GAAP earnings per share of $3… all three QCT revenue streams exceeded our expectations, including record automotive quarterly revenues in excess of $1 billion.” — CEO (prepared remarks) .
  • “With the enactment of [OBBB], we now expect our effective tax rate to generally remain in the 13% to 14% range… this new tax legislation resulted in a non‑cash $5.7 billion charge… in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025.” — Company statement (press release) .
  • “We are incredibly pleased with our execution… non‑GAAP revenues of $44 billion and EPS of $12.03… record free cash flow of $12.8 billion, and… returned nearly 100% to stockholders.” — Akash Palkhiwala, CFO/COO .

Q&A Highlights

  • Data center timing and scale: Management now expects data center to become “material” in FY27 (pulled forward from FY28) with initial customer Humane targeting 200MW in 2026; broader hyperscaler engagement details to come in 1H26 roadmap update .
  • Handset dynamics: Growth driven primarily by premium Android; Apple contribution present but secondary. For Samsung, baseline planning assumption remains ~75% share (S25 at 100%; assume 75% for S26) .
  • Segment seasonality/guidance color: QCT Handsets guided to low‑teens sequential growth in Q1; IoT expected to decline sequentially on seasonality after Q4 outperformance; Automotive flat to slightly up q/q .
  • Margins and investment: Year‑over‑year margin mix reflects incremental investment in data center initiatives as they build new growth vectors .
  • Licensing: No substantive update on Huawei licensing discussions; ongoing .

Estimates Context

  • Q4 FY25 results beat S&P Global consensus on both metrics: revenue $11.27B vs $10.76B*, and non‑GAAP EPS $3.00 vs $2.87*; 28 revenue and 26 EPS estimates contributed*. Management also exceeded the high end of its prior internal guidance [GetEstimates Q4 2025]*.
  • Given stronger‑than‑expected premium Android demand, record Automotive, and resilient IoT, upward revisions are likely for near‑term QCT revenue/margins and consolidated EPS; Q1 FY26 guidance brackets suggest potential for estimate lifts if Android flagship sell‑through sustains .

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Qualcomm delivered a clean non‑GAAP beat on revenue and EPS with broad‑based strength (Handsets, Auto, IoT), while a non‑cash tax law charge drove GAAP EPS negative; focus on non‑GAAP trajectory and cash generation remains appropriate .
  • QCT’s diversification is tangible: Automotive crossed a $1B quarterly run‑rate and IoT remains a steady second engine; both underpin medium‑term growth as Apple revenue normalizes .
  • Near‑term trading catalyst: Q1 FY26 “record” guidance (revenue/EPS) and premium Android momentum could support positive revisions and sentiment, particularly if December/Chinese New Year sell‑through remains strong .
  • Medium‑term thesis: Pulled‑forward AI data center revenue (FY27) plus AI PCs, XR/smart glasses, and industrial edge AI broaden the TAM and reduce handset cyclicality; watch for 1H26 roadmap disclosures as a stock catalyst .
  • Margin framework intact: QCT EBT margin guided to 30–32% for Q1 despite investment in new vectors; company‑level non‑GAAP EBT% remains mid‑30s, consistent with target cadence .
  • Capital returns remain robust with ~$12.6B in FY25 and $0.89 quarterly dividend maintained; balance sheet provides flexibility alongside Alphawave closing targeted 1Q26 .
  • Monitoring items: Huawei licensing progress (no update), OBBB tax effects (non‑cash GAAP noise; lower cash taxes ahead), and Android premium mix sustainability vs competitive responses .

Appendix: Additional Data

Return of capital (Q4 and FY25)

PeriodRepurchases (Shares, $M)Dividend/ShareDividends ($M)Total ($M)
Q4 FY2516; $2,443 $0.89 $957 $3,400
FY2556; $8,791 $3.48 $3,805 $12,596