QI
QUALCOMM INC/DE (QCOM)·Q4 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q4 FY25 delivered solid non‑GAAP results above guidance and consensus: revenue $11.27B and non‑GAAP EPS $3.00, driven by premium Android handsets, record automotive revenue >$1B, and resilient IoT; GAAP EPS was a loss due to a non‑cash $5.7B tax charge from new U.S. legislation . Versus S&P Global consensus, QCOM beat by ~$0.51B on revenue and ~$0.13 on EPS (26/28 ests). [GetEstimates Q4 2025]
- Segment performance was strong: QCT revenue +13% y/y to $9.82B (EBT margin 29%), QTL revenue $1.41B (EBT margin 72%); QCT streams saw Handsets +14% y/y to $6.96B, Automotive +17% to $1.05B, IoT +7% to $1.81B .
- FY25 non‑GAAP revenue rose 13% to $44.14B and non‑GAAP EPS 18% to $12.03; management highlighted 18% growth in QCT non‑Apple revenue and combined Automotive+IoT up 27% for the year .
- Outlook: Q1 FY26 guidance calls for record revenue $11.8B–$12.6B and non‑GAAP EPS $3.30–$3.50; QCT $10.3B–$10.9B (30–32% EBT margin), QTL $1.4B–$1.6B (74–78% EBT margin) .
- Strategic catalysts: accelerating edge AI (premium Android momentum, AI PCs), record auto revenues and first L2+ RidePilot deployment with BMW, and a pulled‑forward AI data center revenue timeline to FY27 (Humane 200MW deployment targeted 2026) .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
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What Went Well
- Premium Android outperformance: QCT Handsets +14% y/y in Q4 on Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 5 strength; “all three QCT revenue streams exceeded our expectations” (CEO) .
- Automotive momentum: record quarterly revenue >$1B in Q4 (+17% y/y), launch of Snapdragon RidePilot with BMW iX3; management expects continued growth as more vehicles launch .
- Non‑Apple growth and diversification: FY25 non‑GAAP revenue +13% to $44.14B; QCT non‑Apple +18% y/y, combined Auto+IoT +27% y/y; management reiterated progress toward 2029 targets .
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What Went Wrong
- GAAP loss from tax legislation: OBBB drove a non‑cash $5.7B charge (valuation allowance on U.S. deferred tax assets), pushing Q4 GAAP EPS to ($2.89); excluded from non‑GAAP .
- QTL softness: QTL revenue fell 7% y/y in Q4 to $1.41B; EBT margin declined 2 pts y/y to 72% .
- Elevated OpEx for new vectors: Q&A pointed to increased investment for data center initiatives impacting year‑over‑year margin mix in QCT despite strong revenue growth .
Financial Results
Overall results vs prior year/quarter (non‑GAAP unless noted; columns oldest→newest)
Segment breakdown
QCT revenue streams (KPI detail)
Consensus vs actual (S&P Global)
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Balance sheet and cash flow highlights (FY end)
- Cash & equivalents $5.52B; marketable securities $4.64B; inventories $6.53B; total assets $50.14B .
- Long‑term debt $14.81B; equity $21.21B .
- FY25 operating cash flow $14.01B; FY25 capex $1.19B .
- Return of capital: Q4 repurchase $2.44B and dividend $0.89/sh ($0.96B) = $3.40B; FY25 total $12.60B . Quarterly dividend declared: $0.89 payable Dec 18, 2025 .
Non‑GAAP reconciliation and adjustments
- Q4 non‑GAAP net income $3.257B and EPS $3.00; major exclusions include share‑based comp ($0.44/share) and “other items” ($5.45/share), notably the $5.7B tax charge tied to OBBB .
Guidance Changes
Note: No prior formal Q1 FY26 guidance was issued; “Previous Guidance” shown as N/A.
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “Our business remains strong as demonstrated by record QCT revenues in fiscal 2025… We delivered 18% year‑over‑year growth in total QCT non‑Apple revenues, with combined fiscal year Automotive and IoT revenue growth of 27%.” — Cristiano Amon, CEO (press release) .
- “In Fiscal Q4, we delivered another strong quarter with revenues of $11.3 billion and non‑GAAP earnings per share of $3… all three QCT revenue streams exceeded our expectations, including record automotive quarterly revenues in excess of $1 billion.” — CEO (prepared remarks) .
- “With the enactment of [OBBB], we now expect our effective tax rate to generally remain in the 13% to 14% range… this new tax legislation resulted in a non‑cash $5.7 billion charge… in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025.” — Company statement (press release) .
- “We are incredibly pleased with our execution… non‑GAAP revenues of $44 billion and EPS of $12.03… record free cash flow of $12.8 billion, and… returned nearly 100% to stockholders.” — Akash Palkhiwala, CFO/COO .
Q&A Highlights
- Data center timing and scale: Management now expects data center to become “material” in FY27 (pulled forward from FY28) with initial customer Humane targeting 200MW in 2026; broader hyperscaler engagement details to come in 1H26 roadmap update .
- Handset dynamics: Growth driven primarily by premium Android; Apple contribution present but secondary. For Samsung, baseline planning assumption remains ~75% share (S25 at 100%; assume 75% for S26) .
- Segment seasonality/guidance color: QCT Handsets guided to low‑teens sequential growth in Q1; IoT expected to decline sequentially on seasonality after Q4 outperformance; Automotive flat to slightly up q/q .
- Margins and investment: Year‑over‑year margin mix reflects incremental investment in data center initiatives as they build new growth vectors .
- Licensing: No substantive update on Huawei licensing discussions; ongoing .
Estimates Context
- Q4 FY25 results beat S&P Global consensus on both metrics: revenue $11.27B vs $10.76B*, and non‑GAAP EPS $3.00 vs $2.87*; 28 revenue and 26 EPS estimates contributed*. Management also exceeded the high end of its prior internal guidance [GetEstimates Q4 2025]*.
- Given stronger‑than‑expected premium Android demand, record Automotive, and resilient IoT, upward revisions are likely for near‑term QCT revenue/margins and consolidated EPS; Q1 FY26 guidance brackets suggest potential for estimate lifts if Android flagship sell‑through sustains .
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Qualcomm delivered a clean non‑GAAP beat on revenue and EPS with broad‑based strength (Handsets, Auto, IoT), while a non‑cash tax law charge drove GAAP EPS negative; focus on non‑GAAP trajectory and cash generation remains appropriate .
- QCT’s diversification is tangible: Automotive crossed a $1B quarterly run‑rate and IoT remains a steady second engine; both underpin medium‑term growth as Apple revenue normalizes .
- Near‑term trading catalyst: Q1 FY26 “record” guidance (revenue/EPS) and premium Android momentum could support positive revisions and sentiment, particularly if December/Chinese New Year sell‑through remains strong .
- Medium‑term thesis: Pulled‑forward AI data center revenue (FY27) plus AI PCs, XR/smart glasses, and industrial edge AI broaden the TAM and reduce handset cyclicality; watch for 1H26 roadmap disclosures as a stock catalyst .
- Margin framework intact: QCT EBT margin guided to 30–32% for Q1 despite investment in new vectors; company‑level non‑GAAP EBT% remains mid‑30s, consistent with target cadence .
- Capital returns remain robust with ~$12.6B in FY25 and $0.89 quarterly dividend maintained; balance sheet provides flexibility alongside Alphawave closing targeted 1Q26 .
- Monitoring items: Huawei licensing progress (no update), OBBB tax effects (non‑cash GAAP noise; lower cash taxes ahead), and Android premium mix sustainability vs competitive responses .
Appendix: Additional Data
Return of capital (Q4 and FY25)